Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
