It was eight weeks in the past when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. As the in-form star curled home his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough question to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – but right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their star man to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, bent right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, will not continue to drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital England player.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
